Economics as voodoo science: case estimate economic growth rate since 2009. to 2012th | Sunday Comment
Since the beginning of the blog a few times I looked at the Croatian economic growth stamp duty forecasts produced by the Institute of Economics (www.eizg.hr). For example, one of their phenomenal predictions from 2011th: EIZ predicts GDP growth in the 2012th 2,5%
I used these two sources. http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-hr-HR/25.aspx http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv/Publication/stat_info.htm Economic stamp duty chronicles AD 2009th - 2012th AD 2009th In January 2009. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-37-% 28sijecanj-2009% 29-hr-HR/383.aspx
Projections EIZ indicate that the negative trends convey 2009. the year in which it expects a decline in gross domestic product of 1.4 percent. However, the second would be half of this year should stop negative tendencies, which would further strengthen the local economy over the next year and the recovery of the global economy should ensure growth of 2.3 percent in the 2010th
Forecast for this year is bad and actually a lot worse than it was only 3 months, but fortunately in the next year followed by moderate economic growth! April 2009. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-38-% 28travanj-2009% 29-hr-HR/406.aspx
In just three months, they changed the forecast for 1.6% of GDP (or 114% in absolute terms). Fortunately, in the next year followed by growth! July 2009 - http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-39-% 28srpanj-2009% 29-hr-HR/432.aspx
It is expected that the gross domestic product this year will fall by 5 percent, while the real household consumption could be reduced by almost 9 percent. In the next year is expected to stop the economic decline.
For the six months decreased projections for huge 3.6% of GDP, or the relative amount forecast falls increased by 257%. Fortunately, in the next year is still below the growth! October 2009. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-40-% 28listopad-2009% 29-hr-HR/458.aspx
This year the expected decline in GDP of 5.5 percent. Thanks to the gradual recovery of the global economy, should soon come to strengthen international capital flows, stamp duty the return of consumer confidence and the recovery in external demand. This, along with responsible fiscal and monetary policy should allow a slight recovery of the Croatian economy next year. It is estimated that GDP growth in the 2010th could amount to 0.4 percent.
We have three months to the end of the year still pimplaju per estimate stamp duty for the current year and the revised projections from the second half of the year (July) and the significant stamp duty 10% (from 5 to 5.5%)! Fortunately, in the next year is still below the growth!
Epilogue: According stamp duty to CBS data, the decline in GDP in 2009. was 6%. Even with a delay of 10 months voodoo scientists EIZ failed to hit the rate of change in GDP with a precision better than 5% (-5.5% instead of the actual -6%). AD 2010th In January 2010. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-41- 28sijecanj% to 2010% 29-hr-HR/488.aspx
Thanks to the gradual recovery of the global economy, and in particular the EU, is expected to strengthen international capital flows, the return of consumer confidence and the recovery in external demand, which combined with the announced measures stamp duty of fiscal and monetary policy should allow for a slight recovery of the Croatian economy, but only in the second half of the year. Because of the negative trends from the beginning of the year, the 2010th will still be a decline in GDP of about 0.7 percent. It is expected that the recovery will significantly strengthen the 2011th
Okay, other investors, the situation is lovely in 2010th stamp duty We EIZ still hard to recover this year, will not fail, but will start a little later. Unfortunately, the growth in the second half will not be able to compensate for the decline at the beginning of the year, and the Croatian GDP in 2010th fall. Fortunately, this year begins growth stamp duty next year is also expected to grow! April 2010. - Http://www.eizg.hr/jos-jedna-teska-godina-za-gospodarstvo-hr-HR/520.aspx
Gross domestic product for the whole year could shrink by 0.7 percent. The 2011th The recovery is expected to be slow and unstable, with the possibility of alternate strengthening and weakening activity.
This sounds like a weather forecast! Super valuable information that GDP will fluctuate. Do not miss to notice that in just three months forecast falls relatively worse by 75% (from -0.4 to -0.7% of GDP). And none of growth stamp duty this year, sorry dude!
Analysts Institute point out that the economic environment is still a lot of uncertainties that could significantly stamp duty affect the projected developments, such as the uncertain stability of the recovery of the global economy, the impacts of the Government's economic recovery stamp duty program and progress towards the Croatian EU.
Analysts Institute of Economics points out that the economic recovery will begin later and it will be slower than previously expected. Thus, a moderate recovery in the next year should bring growth in GDP of 1.6 percent, with a relatively quick tart
Since the beginning of the blog a few times I looked at the Croatian economic growth stamp duty forecasts produced by the Institute of Economics (www.eizg.hr). For example, one of their phenomenal predictions from 2011th: EIZ predicts GDP growth in the 2012th 2,5%
I used these two sources. http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-hr-HR/25.aspx http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv/Publication/stat_info.htm Economic stamp duty chronicles AD 2009th - 2012th AD 2009th In January 2009. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-37-% 28sijecanj-2009% 29-hr-HR/383.aspx
Projections EIZ indicate that the negative trends convey 2009. the year in which it expects a decline in gross domestic product of 1.4 percent. However, the second would be half of this year should stop negative tendencies, which would further strengthen the local economy over the next year and the recovery of the global economy should ensure growth of 2.3 percent in the 2010th
Forecast for this year is bad and actually a lot worse than it was only 3 months, but fortunately in the next year followed by moderate economic growth! April 2009. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-38-% 28travanj-2009% 29-hr-HR/406.aspx
In just three months, they changed the forecast for 1.6% of GDP (or 114% in absolute terms). Fortunately, in the next year followed by growth! July 2009 - http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-39-% 28srpanj-2009% 29-hr-HR/432.aspx
It is expected that the gross domestic product this year will fall by 5 percent, while the real household consumption could be reduced by almost 9 percent. In the next year is expected to stop the economic decline.
For the six months decreased projections for huge 3.6% of GDP, or the relative amount forecast falls increased by 257%. Fortunately, in the next year is still below the growth! October 2009. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-40-% 28listopad-2009% 29-hr-HR/458.aspx
This year the expected decline in GDP of 5.5 percent. Thanks to the gradual recovery of the global economy, should soon come to strengthen international capital flows, stamp duty the return of consumer confidence and the recovery in external demand. This, along with responsible fiscal and monetary policy should allow a slight recovery of the Croatian economy next year. It is estimated that GDP growth in the 2010th could amount to 0.4 percent.
We have three months to the end of the year still pimplaju per estimate stamp duty for the current year and the revised projections from the second half of the year (July) and the significant stamp duty 10% (from 5 to 5.5%)! Fortunately, in the next year is still below the growth!
Epilogue: According stamp duty to CBS data, the decline in GDP in 2009. was 6%. Even with a delay of 10 months voodoo scientists EIZ failed to hit the rate of change in GDP with a precision better than 5% (-5.5% instead of the actual -6%). AD 2010th In January 2010. - Http://www.eizg.hr/croatian-economic-outlook-quarterly-br-41- 28sijecanj% to 2010% 29-hr-HR/488.aspx
Thanks to the gradual recovery of the global economy, and in particular the EU, is expected to strengthen international capital flows, the return of consumer confidence and the recovery in external demand, which combined with the announced measures stamp duty of fiscal and monetary policy should allow for a slight recovery of the Croatian economy, but only in the second half of the year. Because of the negative trends from the beginning of the year, the 2010th will still be a decline in GDP of about 0.7 percent. It is expected that the recovery will significantly strengthen the 2011th
Okay, other investors, the situation is lovely in 2010th stamp duty We EIZ still hard to recover this year, will not fail, but will start a little later. Unfortunately, the growth in the second half will not be able to compensate for the decline at the beginning of the year, and the Croatian GDP in 2010th fall. Fortunately, this year begins growth stamp duty next year is also expected to grow! April 2010. - Http://www.eizg.hr/jos-jedna-teska-godina-za-gospodarstvo-hr-HR/520.aspx
Gross domestic product for the whole year could shrink by 0.7 percent. The 2011th The recovery is expected to be slow and unstable, with the possibility of alternate strengthening and weakening activity.
This sounds like a weather forecast! Super valuable information that GDP will fluctuate. Do not miss to notice that in just three months forecast falls relatively worse by 75% (from -0.4 to -0.7% of GDP). And none of growth stamp duty this year, sorry dude!
Analysts Institute point out that the economic environment is still a lot of uncertainties that could significantly stamp duty affect the projected developments, such as the uncertain stability of the recovery of the global economy, the impacts of the Government's economic recovery stamp duty program and progress towards the Croatian EU.
Analysts Institute of Economics points out that the economic recovery will begin later and it will be slower than previously expected. Thus, a moderate recovery in the next year should bring growth in GDP of 1.6 percent, with a relatively quick tart
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